iPhones, SmartPhones and the Coming Cloud Addiction

I'm not your typical early adopter, but I pre-ordered Apple's iPad and have used it endlessly since the day it landed on the doorstep of my Virginia farmhouse. Wherever I take it, I end up doing a sales pitch for the darned thing.  From waiters at the only good restaurant in town to kids and adults at the hockey rink, everyone wants to know about Apple's magical device. The question I answer most often is "What do you use it for?" My answer is about 100 different things, but not just one thing. There is no killer app.  For all its sizzle and hype, the iPad is a subtle device.  It works its way into your daily routines in a hundred ways until you end up having separation anxiety when your spouse sneaks off with it to read a book.  Weird, but true. Then again, isn't that what great products do?  They subtly work their way into our routines.  We don't know they have crossed the path from useful to vital until we don't have access to them for a period of time.  Then we panic.


A few years ago, I bought a car with a Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT).  It wasn't why I bought the car.  Truth be told, I didn't even know what CVT was. I liked the car.  Five years later, when I went shopping for a replacement, I only considered cars with the smooth shifting CVT.  Marketers can fill Times Square with all the brightly lit messages they can afford, but unless a product delivers consistently every day until we are dependent upon it, the product ranks as fad not trend.


For all the fanfare surrounding the cloud, I suspect this is the way the cloud will enter our work lives -- slowly, steadily and subtly. We won't be aware of its integration into our lives until there is a problem and we can't access something. I think this is already happening on a much wider scale than we realize.


The savvy people over at ZDnet's CloudTweaks raised an interesting illustration of this point in their blog about yesterday's introduction of Apple's other wonder tool, the iPhone. Writing about the introduction of a whole new class of SmartPhones, from Apple, HTC, RIM Nokia, Motorola and others, CloudTweaks pointed out that "these devices are introducing cloud computing offerings to many who might not otherwise care. The folks purchasing these devices don’t really care about all of that, however. They just want a slick looking, highly functional device."  Exactly!


SmartPhone Apps have moved in one year from the novelty of Zippo Lighters to very functional network-based applications and services. And these are not just limited to apps of restaurants, maps and directions. There is an increasingly diverse set of corporate applications in areas like CRM, banking and communications.  The cost benefits and limited risk certainly make these applications appealing to SMBs.  But if employees start injecting cloud usage of their own accord via SmartPhones into the technology gene pool of large corporations, will their subtle reliance on the cloud accelerate the adoption of more mainstream cloud deployments?  How long will it take until the cloud wends is way into mainstream corporate usage?   For all the hype and marketing about the cloud, nothing will measure success in technology better than separation anxiety. In fact,  I think they call it addiction. Excuse me. HONEY, WHERE'S THE iPAD?!!!!!!

Will the Cloud Save Journalism?

Do you ever struggle with defining the line between content and news?

I could justify the blurring border easily if I look only through my commercial lenses. But that seems self defeating, because the question ultimately brings into play the foundation of democracy:  What happens to the press' role as the Fourth Estate when the news media experiences the kind of rapid decline we've witnessed over the past decade?  

The emerging void in journalism should worry all of us. The Project for Excellence in Journalism's recent annual "State of the News Media 2010" report, indicated 5,900 newspaper jobs were lost in 2009 (in addition to a similar number in 2008). The overall impact is a 33% reduction in newsroom employment at newspapers since 2001.  In the same time, there have been 450 jobs lost at local TV news operations.  We've seen major dailies shutter their doors and major news magazines like Newseek placed on the auction block.  We've seen this offset with an incredible number of bloggers -- only a handful of whom are legitimate journalists.  But can a disaggregated array of bloggers -- many of whom represent corporate interests rather than independent, objective journalists -- serve as the new Fourth State?  And if not, what is THEIR role? 

Not surprisingly to regular readers of this blog, we believe the cloud will serve a valuable function in rebuilding the Fourth Estate, enabling the high costs of printing, publishing and physical distribution to be contained while restructuring advertising models. We see an interesting new vision that integrates journalism and neojournalism in projects like Newsflash from Future News: What Will Journalism Look Like?, published last year by the design experts at IDEO.  We see exciting possibilities for media in new technologies like HP's MagCloud, and we see user friendly delivery systems emerging with the new generation of eReaders like Apple's iPad and Amazon's Kindle. Technologies and ideas like these involve audiences, diversify content, expand ideas, accelerate the creation and delivery of information into a continuous two-way stream and provide us with relatively familiar formats for accessing information with the touch of an icon regardless of where we are in the world.  

But journalism doesn't exist without journalists. The question that worries us most is whether news media can shed the crushing costs of traditional brick and mortar publishing overhead and embrace these new models fast enough to begin reinvesting in their depleted editorial staffs?  


Image reprinted from Newsflash from Future News: What Will Journalism Look Like? © 2009, IDEO 

We Love Apple

I am not an Apple customer.

Well, that’s not entirely true. I do own 3 iPods. But for a variety of reasons I own a Motorola Droid smartphone and have used PCs since my days at IBM. I have nothing against Apple products per se, in fact, when I’ve encountered them I have found them easy to use and of the highest quality.

While I may not be an Apple customer, I do like the company. My kids attended school in Cupertino, where Apple is based, and benefited from the company’s tax dollars and generous gifts to local schools. And who can argue with the stock performance during the past few years!

So I am sympathetic when Apple finds itself being attacked. In the past two days, Apple has found itself being attacked on several on several fronts at once.

A few weeks ago I posted to this blog about the young Apple engineer who lost his prototype 4G iPhone in a bar in Redwood City. Believe it or not, it looks like it’s happened again.

On Wednesday, a Vietnamese web site posted pictures and a video of a prototype 4G iPhone, complete with Apple logo and 16 Gigabytes of storage written on it. The video shows the inside of the phone that includes the new A4 processor from Apple. The company has not yet responded to the incident, but it’s clear another prototype has been lost.

Back on this side of the Pacific, Apple wasn’t talking about its most recent lawsuit either. On Wednesday, Taiwanese cell phone maker HTC filled suit against Apple for the violation of five key technology patents. While the lawsuit wouldn’t block the sale of Apple’s iPhone, if the ITC rules in HTC’s favor, Apple might be required to pay millions in fines and licensing fees.

And if that weren’t enough, Adobe, Inc., maker of Flash, took out a full page ad in Thursday’s edition of the major newspapers including The Wall St. Journal and the San Jose Mercury News criticizing Apple for blocking application developers from using Flash for apps that run on Apple’s iPhone and iPad product lines. Part of the copy reads, “What we don’t love is anybody taking away your freedom to choose what you create, how you create it, and what you experience on the web.”

Ouch.

Yes, it’s been tough couple of days for Apple. But with more than a million iPads already sold, 7.8 million expected to be sold by the end of the year, and more than double that number sold next year, Apple will probably do just fine.

Even if they don’t have me as a customer. Yet.

Tablet Wars

Early in my career I had the good fortune to work with Dick Hackborn while he was still running the LaserJet printer business for Hewlett-Packard. Hackborn was a very smart guy, and one of the business and marketing strategies he most often employed was “never attack a fortified hill.”

What he meant was that it’s rarely a good idea to enter a market that has many competitors, with mature product lines and lots of loyal customers.

I thought of Hackborn’s fortified hill this week when I read that Apple had sold more than 1 million iPads in the first month they were on the market. That’s a lot of tablets. And Apple’s users are among the most loyal in any industry. So you think that competitors would think twice about entering the tablet market. Wrong.

Instead, competitors are entering the market as fast as they can.

Already in the market with Apple is the WeTab from German-based Neofonie, Fusion Garage’s JooJoo, and France-based Archos 9. Other expected entrants into the tablet market are Toshiba, Dell and other PC manufacturers. HP has already given sneak peaks at its Slate, which is Flash enabled (unlike the Apple iPad) and runs Microsoft’s Windows 7. Google also is rumored to be working on a tablet.

Google, Microsoft and the Palm OS (recently acquired by HP) will all vie for the operating system of choice on the new tablets.

But the question remains, what will it take to avoid getting slaughtered as these companies attack Apple’s fortified hill.

The key to success will most likely lie in their ability to create easy to use APIs designed to attract as many application developers possible. Apple has an unbelievable head start with more than 140,000 apps. Most industry analysts are betting that HP will have the best shot at battling Apple for tablet supremacy, while others are leaning toward Google.

Here at 3Point, we provide our clients with business and marketing strategy, so when we view the “tablet wars” through our marketing lens, it’s hard to bet against Apple. After all, they beat all odds when they attacked the fortified hill of MP3 players with their iPod, and won with an all-out marketing campaign. I’m betting they’ll be just as fierce protecting their iPad fortified hill.

Apple v. Google: Battle in the Cloud

I watched with amazement, and some amusement, as more than 300,000 people bought the new Apple iPad on the first day it was available -- and it isn’t even 3G enabled! I find it fascinating to watch people rush to buy the latest and greatest tech gadget the day it comes out knowing full well that it will have glitches and bugs, and will fall far short of versions 2.0 and 3.0 in terms of performance.

I talked with a geeky engineer friend of mine last night who had purchased his iPad last weekend and he gave it a less than glowing review of “it’s OK.” “Wait’ll the next rev,” he suggested.

But who am I to talk. I did the same thing last November when the Motorola Droid, running the Google Android OS on the Verizon network was introduced. I actually contacted Verizon in advance of the Droid launch to place my order. That ensured that my Droid arrived in the mail the first day the new smartphone was available. And guess what? It did have glitches and bugs, and it did fall short of my very high expectations.

Then on December 11 of last year the next rev of the Android OS automatically installed on my Droid and all of the problems I had experienced disappeared. Wait’ll the next rev, I thought to myself.

So I found it a bit ironic that on Tuesday of this week, just 4 days after the launch of the iPad, my Droid once again prompted me to download a new version of the “system software.” Was Google responding to the iPad launch with some vital fixes to the OS, or was it packing new features into it to maintain its lead over the iPhone? I wasn’t sure, but the timing of the operating system upgrade sure was interesting.

It is becoming clear that the future of mobile communications will be a battle in which both Google and Apple will be featured prominently. The iPhone came first, but the Google-driven Droid has proved to be a worthy opponent. And while the iPad hit the market first, there are several similar tablets in the works, including the WePad from Germany-based Neofonie, that will use the Android operating system and access the tens of thousands of apps available in Android Market.

A source no less than Gartner Group is predicting that the Android operating system will surge to 14% of the smartphone market by 2012, putting it ahead of the iPhone, Windows Mobile and the Blackberry; second only to the Symbian OS used in Nokia’s devices which are popular in Europe and many countries outside the US.

And why is Gartner so bullish on the Android OS? The Cloud. Gartner gives Android such an enormous surge in popularity because of a variety of factors, but chiefly because of Google's backing of Android and the range of cloud computing functions and related applications that Google will make available in coming years.

Smartphone applications live in the cloud. Therefore, the smartphone with an operating system designed for cloud computing is likely to perform better, and work more intuitively, than an OS that wasn’t built with the cloud in mind.

To quote Ken Dulaney from that Gartner Group report, “…because Android and Google operate in an integrative and open environment, [they] could easily top ... the singular Apple.”

Yes, Google and Apple will continue to slug it out in both the tablet and smartphone markets. Both companies will make great products and both will market the heck out of them. But the winner may be decided by which of them better understands how to work within a cloud-computing environment. So far, that appears to be Google.