You Know It's Real When It Enters the "Trough"

In August, Gartner Group released its annual Hype Cycle on Emerging Technologies. We here at 3Point Communications were awaiting the release of this year's Hype Cycle because we were particularly interested to find out if cloud computing -- which had been at the "Peak of Inflated Expectations" in 2009 -- would begin its descent into what Gartner terms the "Trough of Disillusionment."

You see, the ultimate goal of any emerging technology is to become an accepted technology as quickly as possible, go mainstream, thus lowering the cost of production. It is then that the investment in the new technology can be recouped and profits realized. This doesn't happen until the emerging technology makes the perilous trip through the Trough.

Some emerging technologies enter the Trough of Disillusionment never to be seen again, such as broadband over power lines, while others, such as interactive TV and speech recognition, are well on they way to mainstream adoption.

It is our belief that cloud computing will quickly become standard operating procedure for businesses and consumers alike, and this was confirmed by Gartner's recent report which has cloud computing going mainstream within 2-5 years. So seeing cloud computing entering the Trough was a welcome sight.

Here are five reasons we think cloud computing is here to stay:

1. It's already here. If you've used a photo-sharing site such as Shutterfly or accessed email on a friend's PC, then you've already tapped into the power of cloud computing. These simple applications, and countless others like them, don't exist on your PC, laptop or mobile device, they "live" in the cloud and are accessed on an as-needed basis. On the business front everything from email to CRM to customer support has migrated to the cloud. Not every company has moved every application from internal IT systems to the cloud, but the trend is well underway and in our opinion inevitable.
2. Cloud computing saves money. When businesses move infrastructure, platforms and software applications to the cloud, they save money. If your core business is not IT, why invest resources, time and money in owning and managing an infrastructure? A good example is Recovery.gov, the first government-wide system moved to the cloud, which expects to save $700,000 in its first budget cycle with more savings to follow.
3. Cloud computing is more secure than people realize. The number one concern among CIO and IT professionals is security when moving a company's data and resources to the cloud. But in many cases, cloud-based security is more secure than a company's internal systems. For example, an Aberdeen Group report found that a company's email security may improve by as much as 53% when moved to the cloud.
4. Going mobile. With the success of Apple's iPad, new tablets hitting the market, smartphones and other mobile devices, businesses and consumers are both accessing information on the go. These devices simply don't have the storage capacity or internal power to house thousands of apps. Rather, mobile devices are portals into the world of cloud computing. And IDC predicts that more than a quarter of a billion smartphones will be sold this year and numbers will increase next year by 10% or more. All will access the cloud.
5. Money talks. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, HP, IBM, Cisco, CA, Oracle and thousands of other companies big and small, are investing billions of dollars in cloud computing. Some, like Microsoft, have made bold claims that cloud computing must be the future of the company if it is to survive and thrive. With this much momentum behind the cloud, it is only a matter of time before it becomes mainstream.

We would interested in your thoughts on cloud computing. Are you there yet? Have you begun the journey? Or is something holding you back?

For the record, 3Point Communications embraces cloud computing and uses cloud-based applications to manage and run our business.

Will the Cloud Save Journalism?

Do you ever struggle with defining the line between content and news?

I could justify the blurring border easily if I look only through my commercial lenses. But that seems self defeating, because the question ultimately brings into play the foundation of democracy:  What happens to the press' role as the Fourth Estate when the news media experiences the kind of rapid decline we've witnessed over the past decade?  

The emerging void in journalism should worry all of us. The Project for Excellence in Journalism's recent annual "State of the News Media 2010" report, indicated 5,900 newspaper jobs were lost in 2009 (in addition to a similar number in 2008). The overall impact is a 33% reduction in newsroom employment at newspapers since 2001.  In the same time, there have been 450 jobs lost at local TV news operations.  We've seen major dailies shutter their doors and major news magazines like Newseek placed on the auction block.  We've seen this offset with an incredible number of bloggers -- only a handful of whom are legitimate journalists.  But can a disaggregated array of bloggers -- many of whom represent corporate interests rather than independent, objective journalists -- serve as the new Fourth State?  And if not, what is THEIR role? 

Not surprisingly to regular readers of this blog, we believe the cloud will serve a valuable function in rebuilding the Fourth Estate, enabling the high costs of printing, publishing and physical distribution to be contained while restructuring advertising models. We see an interesting new vision that integrates journalism and neojournalism in projects like Newsflash from Future News: What Will Journalism Look Like?, published last year by the design experts at IDEO.  We see exciting possibilities for media in new technologies like HP's MagCloud, and we see user friendly delivery systems emerging with the new generation of eReaders like Apple's iPad and Amazon's Kindle. Technologies and ideas like these involve audiences, diversify content, expand ideas, accelerate the creation and delivery of information into a continuous two-way stream and provide us with relatively familiar formats for accessing information with the touch of an icon regardless of where we are in the world.  

But journalism doesn't exist without journalists. The question that worries us most is whether news media can shed the crushing costs of traditional brick and mortar publishing overhead and embrace these new models fast enough to begin reinvesting in their depleted editorial staffs?  


Image reprinted from Newsflash from Future News: What Will Journalism Look Like? © 2009, IDEO 

The Dark Side of Cloud Computing

The old axiom in real estate is location, location, location. I just spent a full day at the CloudConnect Conference in Santa Clara, CA and the manta repeated by every one of the presenters on the future of cloud computing was security, security, security!

One presenter after another quoted data from Gartner Group, McKinsey & Company, or privately-funded research to show that 9 out of every 10 potential customers listed security issues as the number one barrier to implementing a cloud computing strategy at their company.

And the concern about cloud computing security is well founded.

One of the presenters asked conference participants if they knew what enterprise had the largest cloud computing presence in the world. Among the guesses were IBM, Microsoft, HP, Facebook, Amazon, and of course Google. The answer, however, was an outfit, if you can call it that, with which many in the audience were not even aware – Conficker .

A New York Times article from last year describes Conficker as program that “uses flaws in Windows software to co-opt machines and link them into a virtual computer that can be commanded remotely by its authors. With more than five million of these zombies now under its control – government, business and home computers in more than 200 countries – this shadowy computer has power that dwarfs that of the world’s largest data centers.”

Indeed, Conficker’s “cloud” is larger that the cloud computing efforts of Amazon, Google and IBM combined! And its sole purpose for existing is to disrupt normal business operations inside of companies, organizations and governments. With that monster looming in millions of “cloud computing resources” around the world it’s no wonder 9 out 10 customers considering implementing cloud computing strategies are nervous about security breeches.

But all is not doom and gloom. Despite the security issues that must be taken seriously, the benefits of moving resources to the cloud far outweigh the risk, and many organizations, including the US Government, are doing just that in a big way.

Much of the same research that showed security as the biggest impediment to cloud computing adoption also showed cloud computing revenue growing by more than 20 percent in the next three years. Of course with that much money in the balance, Conficker, and other ne’er-do-well’s won’t be far behind. That’s why security will remain front and center in any discussion about cloud computing.

In my follow up post next week, I’ll address Gartner Group’s “Seven Deadly Sins” of cloud computing security and what questions companies should ask of their cloud computing vendor before taking the plunge.