iPhone sold out before it goes on sale?

The iPhone 4 goes on sale in France next week and they are already predicting that it will be sold out. In fact, SFR, the number two moblile network operator in France, stopped taking advance orders for fear of not being able to fulfill all of the customer requests. Qu'est ce que c'est? Last week, I blogged about a study showing the widespread adoption of smartphones in France. Given the latest prediction of the iPhone 4 rush, it might be time for another survey. The question I have is if the iPhone 4 sells out will that be a blessing for Android phones? HTC, Motorola, Samsung, SonyEriccson all have multiple Android models on the market. Additionally, most of the iPhone 4 reviews that I've read mention Android as already having the functionality to have more that one application running at a time -- something new to the iPhone and a subtle plug for Android. The other question I have is is Microsoft too late to the smarthphone game? Steve Ballmer says to expect phones with Windows Phone 7 in time for Christmas but will there be in anybody left in France that doesn't already have a smartphone? Yes, there is the upgrade market but are users going to change OS unless they've had a bad experience with their current smartphone? Should be an interesting finish to the year.

Smartphones a big hit in France

I came across an interesting article in Les Echos this week. According to a survey by GroupM and SFR, four million French connect to the Internet daily from their smartphone -- that's about one of every thirteen citizens over the age of 15. Mon Dieu! However, only 18 percent of mobile phone users have a smartphone. The moral of this story seems to be if users get their hands on a smartphone they will use them and use them a lot. Orange, with its recent announcement of a range of Android-based phones from Sony Ericsson, LG, HTC and Samsung for less than 49 euros, is well positioned to make customers out of the the 82 percent of French mobile phone users who don't yet posses a smartphone. If the smartphone market booms in France, as it appears to be primed, it will be a welcome boost for the economy overall as carriers, equipment providers, handset manufacturers, mobile content developers and advertisers all stand to benefit.

We Love Apple

I am not an Apple customer.

Well, that’s not entirely true. I do own 3 iPods. But for a variety of reasons I own a Motorola Droid smartphone and have used PCs since my days at IBM. I have nothing against Apple products per se, in fact, when I’ve encountered them I have found them easy to use and of the highest quality.

While I may not be an Apple customer, I do like the company. My kids attended school in Cupertino, where Apple is based, and benefited from the company’s tax dollars and generous gifts to local schools. And who can argue with the stock performance during the past few years!

So I am sympathetic when Apple finds itself being attacked. In the past two days, Apple has found itself being attacked on several on several fronts at once.

A few weeks ago I posted to this blog about the young Apple engineer who lost his prototype 4G iPhone in a bar in Redwood City. Believe it or not, it looks like it’s happened again.

On Wednesday, a Vietnamese web site posted pictures and a video of a prototype 4G iPhone, complete with Apple logo and 16 Gigabytes of storage written on it. The video shows the inside of the phone that includes the new A4 processor from Apple. The company has not yet responded to the incident, but it’s clear another prototype has been lost.

Back on this side of the Pacific, Apple wasn’t talking about its most recent lawsuit either. On Wednesday, Taiwanese cell phone maker HTC filled suit against Apple for the violation of five key technology patents. While the lawsuit wouldn’t block the sale of Apple’s iPhone, if the ITC rules in HTC’s favor, Apple might be required to pay millions in fines and licensing fees.

And if that weren’t enough, Adobe, Inc., maker of Flash, took out a full page ad in Thursday’s edition of the major newspapers including The Wall St. Journal and the San Jose Mercury News criticizing Apple for blocking application developers from using Flash for apps that run on Apple’s iPhone and iPad product lines. Part of the copy reads, “What we don’t love is anybody taking away your freedom to choose what you create, how you create it, and what you experience on the web.”

Ouch.

Yes, it’s been tough couple of days for Apple. But with more than a million iPads already sold, 7.8 million expected to be sold by the end of the year, and more than double that number sold next year, Apple will probably do just fine.

Even if they don’t have me as a customer. Yet.